Every nation, in every region, now has a decision to make.
Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists.
There are only two powers now in the world. One is America,
which is tyrannical and oppressive. The other is a warrior who has
not yet been awakened from his slumber and that warrior is
Islam.
Make no mistake about it: the choice for sure is between two
visions of the world.
Few readers will fail to identify the first quotation cited
above: it was uttered by George Bush, speaking soon after the
September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Few readers, similarly, will
be surprised to learn that the second quote came from a Sunni Muslim
cleric in Baghdad, Imam Mouaid al-Ubaidi. The third quote, however,
may be a bit harder to identify: it was spoken by French Foreign
Minister Dominique de Villepin, describing the different world views
held by Washington and Paris. And it should remind Americans that
not everyone divides the world on the same lines as the US.
Framing choices is central to national security policy. Since
World War II, no nation has played a more influential role in
defining such alternatives than the US. Today, however, the Bush
administration purports to be redefining the fundamental choice
"every nation, in every region" must make. America's radical
adversaries - eager to promote themselves as Washington's chief
nemeses - are echoing the attempt. Those caught in the middle,
however, suggest the choices before them may not be quite so
simple.
For Bush, September 11 came as a revelation, leading him to the
startled conclusion that the globe had changed in ways gravely
hazardous to the security - indeed, the very survival - of the US.
This conclusion soon led Bush to a fateful decision: to depart, in
fundamental ways, from the approach that has characterised American
foreign policy for more than half a century. Soon, reliance on
alliance had been replaced by redemption through pre-emption; the
shock of force trumped the hard work of diplomacy and long-time
relationships were redefined.
In making these changes, Bush explicitly rejected the advice
offered by one senior statesman who warned, "this most recent
surprise attack [should] erase the concept in some quarters that the
United States can somehow go it alone in the fight against
terrorism, or in anything else, for that matter". So said George HW
Bush, America's 41st president. But his son, the 43rd president,
offered his own perspective shortly before going to war with Iraq:
"At some point, we may be the only ones left. That's okay with me.
We are America."
The second Bush administration, believing that its perception of
the meaning of September 11 is self-evidently right, has failed to
make a sustained effort to persuade the rest of the world to share
it. As a result, the world does not in fact subscribe to the same
view. Certainly, most of the world does not agree with Bush that
September 11 "changed everything". This is not to say the attacks
were met by indifference.
On the contrary, NATO, for the first time in its history,
declared the crimes to be acts of aggression against the entire
alliance. Almost every government in the Muslim world, including
Iran and the Palestinian Authority, condemned the strikes. US
allies, from Canada to Japan to Australia, rushed to aid or
complement the American military campaign against al-Qaeda and the
Taliban in Afghanistan. Pakistan, properly confronted by the
administration with a stark choice, chose to co-operate as well.
Even China and Russia, plagued by Muslim separatists, pledged
solidarity. For months after September 11, it seemed the Bush
administration would harness these reactions to unite the world in
opposition to a common threat.
The president began well, emphasising the array of nationalities
victimised in the World Trade Centre attacks and gathering broad
support for the military operation he directed at the perpetrators.
Al-Qaeda's Taliban protectors were pushed from power, its training
camps destroyed, arms caches seized and many of its leaders captured
or killed. But instead of single-mindedly building on these gains,
the Bush administration has since steadily enlarged and complicated
its own mission.
In his 2002 State of the Union address, for example, Bush focused
not on al-Qaeda and the work remaining in Afghanistan, but rather on
the so-called axis of evil. In public remarks later that year, he
emphasised not the value of building an anti-terrorism coalition,
but rather his unilateral intention to maintain US "military
strength beyond challenge, thereby making the destabilising arms
races of other eras pointless". He then asked Congress for the
authority to explore new uses for nuclear weapons, creating the
perception overseas that he was lowering the threshold for nuclear
strikes - despite America's vast conventional military superiority
and the risks posed to US security by the proliferation of weapons
of mass destruction.
When the administration published its 2002 National Security
Strategy last September, it took this process even further,
transforming anticipatory self-defence - a tool every president has
quietly held in reserve - into the centrepiece of its national
security policy. This step, however, was dangerously easy to
misconstrue. (Do we really want a world in which every country feels
entitled to attack any other that might someday threaten it?) And
when Bush did discuss the pursuit of al-Qaeda, he portrayed it less
as a global struggle against a global threat than as an effort to
bring terrorists to "American justice" - as if justice alone were
not enough.
Finally, in 2003, Washington did begin once more to rally world
support - but this time against Iraq, not al-Qaeda. To bolster the
decision to oust Saddam Hussein, administration officials lumped his
regime together with al-Qaeda, describing them as complementary
halves of the same existential threat. US officials declared that
America would act against such threats when and wherever necessary,
regardless of international law, notwithstanding the doubts of
allies, and without concern for the outrage of those who might
misunderstand US actions. America, said the president, had no choice
but to go to war to prevent its enemies from obtaining more weapons
or growing more powerful. And so the US duly went to war against
Iraq, despite having convinced only four UN security council members
to back the action.
Many observers see in the Bush administration's policies an
admirable demonstration of spine in confronting those who threaten
the safety of the American people.
I would join the applause - if only those policies were
safeguarding US citizens more effectively. But they are not.
Moreover, I remain convinced that had Al Gore been elected
president, and had the attacks of September 11 still happened, the
US and NATO would have gone to war in Afghanistan together, then
deployed forces all around that country and stayed to rebuild it.
Democrats, after all, confess support for nation-building, and also
believe in finishing the jobs we start. I also believe the US and
NATO together would have remained focused on fighting al-Qaeda and
would not have pretended - and certainly would not have been allowed
to get away with pretending - that the failure to capture Osama bin
Laden did not matter. As for Saddam, I believe the Gore team would
have read the intelligence information about his activities
differently and concluded that a war against Iraq, although
justifiable, was not essential in the short term to protect US
security. A policy of containment would have been sufficient while
the administration pursued the criminals who had murdered thousands
on American soil.
The Bush administration's decision to broaden its focus from
opposing al-Qaeda to invading Iraq and threatening military action
against others has had unintended and unwelcome consequences.
According to the recent findings of the Pew Global Attitudes
Project, which surveyed 16,000 people in 20 countries and the
Palestinian territories in May, the percentage of those who have a
favourable view of the US has declined sharply (15 percentage points
or more) in nations such as Brazil, France, Germany, Jordan,
Nigeria, Russia and Turkey. In Indonesia, the world's most populous
Muslim-majority state, the view of the US plunged from 75 per cent
favourable to 83 per cent negative between 2000 and 2003. Support
for the US-led war on terrorism has declined in each of the
countries listed above, along with pivotal Pakistan, where it stands
at a disheartening 20 per cent. The citizens of such NATO allies as
the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy rated Russia's
Vladimir Putin more highly as a world leader than Bush. Significant
majorities of those interviewed in Russia and in seven of eight
predominantly Muslim countries (Kuwait being the exception) claimed
to be somewhat or very worried about the potential threat to their
societies posed by the US military. I never thought the day would
come when the US would be feared by those it has neither the
intention nor the cause to harm.
The ouster of Saddam has indeed made the world, or at least Iraq,
a better place. But when the US commits tens of billions of dollars
to any worthwhile project, that is the least it should be able to
say. Even more vital is progress towards mobilising the kind of
multinational, multicultural, multifaceted and multi-year initiative
required to discredit, disrupt and dismantle al-Qaeda and whatever
splinter factions it may one day spawn. That initiative will require
a maximum degree of global co-ordination and the integration of
force, diplomacy, intelligence and law. It will require strong
working relationships in regions where radical ideologies thrive and
pro-Western sentiments are scant. And above all, it will require
vigorous leadership from Islamic moderates, who must win the
struggle for control of their own faith. Unfortunately, the Iraq war
and the subsequent US occupation of Baghdad - the capital of Islam
during that faith's golden age - have made more difficult the
choices Islamic moderates and others around the world must make.
The problem is that Bush has reframed his initial question.
Instead of simply asking others to oppose al-Qaeda, he now asks them
to oppose al-Qaeda, support the invasion of an Arab country and
endorse the doctrine of pre-emption - all as part of a single
package. Faced with this choice, many who staunchly oppose al-Qaeda
have nevertheless decided that they do not want to be "with" the US,
just as some Iraqis are now making clear their opposition both to
Saddam and to those who freed them from him.
It is perhaps unsurprising to find attitudes of this sort
widespread in the Arab world. But it is more remarkable to find them
taking hold in much of Europe. Bush ran for office pledging to be "a
uniter, not a divider", but as the numbers suggest, he has proved
highly divisive among America's closest friends. This was true even
before September 11, thanks to his administration's scorn for
international measures such as the Kyoto protocol on climate change.
But the divide deepened considerably in the run-up to the second
Gulf War, and it has moderated only slightly since. Transatlantic
friction, of course, is not new. But European unease with American
pretensions, coupled with American doubts about European resolve,
has created the potential for a long-term and dangerous rift.
Some commentators have tried to explain European opposition to
the war as being based on a slavish allegiance to multilateral
organisations, a sense of relative powerlessness or simple jealousy
of the US. Such analyses, however, miss the possibility that the
American arguments simply were not fully persuasive. I personally
felt the war was justified on the basis of Saddam's decade-long
refusal to comply with UN security council resolutions on WMD. But
the administration's claim that Saddam posed an imminent threat was
poorly supported, as was its claim of his alleged connections to
al-Qaeda.
The war's opponents also raised a number of questions that were
not very ably answered regarding American plans for postwar
reconstruction and the possibility that the war would actually
enhance al-Qaeda's appeal to potential recruits. It should be no
wonder, then, that there were disagreements about the wisdom of
going to war.
It was, after all, a war of choice, not of necessity. And it was
initiated by Washington in a show of dominance prompted by a sense
of vulnerability that most Europeans do not fully share.
The concerns raised by European critics of the war were neither
trivial nor unanswerable. They should, however, have been answered
not with exaggerated, unproven allegations, but with a combination
of patience and ample evidence. By linking Baghdad to al-Qaeda, the
Bush administration sought to equate opposition to fighting Iraq
with gutlessness in confronting bin Laden. This tactic, wildly
unfair, contributed to a perception within the American public that
France and Germany were not simply quarrelsome but traitorous. The
real problem with the war critics, however, was not their timidity
towards al-Qaeda but their record of having cut Saddam too much
slack in complying with UN security council resolutions over the
past decade. The French and the Russians were especially culpable in
this regard; their special pleading had, for years, given Saddam
hope that he could divide the council and get sanctions lifted
without coming clean about his weapons programs.
The best rebuttal Washington had to qualms about regime change
was that military force was the only way (in the absence of
effective UN inspections) to enforce the council's resolutions and
thereby strengthen both the UN's credibility and international law.
Unfortunately, the Bush administration made its eagerness to pull
the plug on chief UN weapons inspector Hans Blix and his team
transparent and billed its pre-emptive war doctrine as a replacement
for international law. As a consequence, much of the world saw the
invasion not as a way to put muscle into accepted rules, but rather
as the inauguration of a new set of rules, written and applied
solely by the US.
It didn't have to be this way. After World War II, the US was
also at a pinnacle of power, and also faced new and unprecedented
dangers. Yet the Truman administration still sat down and haggled
with a flock of less powerful countries about what the rules of the
new international game should be. The Bush administration, however,
has created the impression that it does not care what others think,
and it has thereby set the world's teeth on edge.
As I suggested above, responsibility for the transatlantic split
does not rest on the shoulders of the Bush administration alone.
The French certainly have not helped matters, by arguing, for
example, that the very purpose of European integration should be to
create a counterweight to American power. This constitutes de
Villepin's choice "between two visions of the world", by which he
means a choice between a unipolar world in which Washington acts as
an unrestrained hegemon and a multipolar one in which American power
is offset and balanced by other forces, most particularly a united
Europe. But that argument is ludicrous. The idea that the power of
the US endangers the interests of European democracies, rather than
strengthens and helps shield them, is utter nonsense. US power may
harm French pride, but it also helped roll back Hitler, save a
blockaded Berlin, defeat communism and rid the Balkans of a
rampaging Slobodan Milosevic.
The divisions that have arisen between the US and many in Europe
can and must be narrowed. The challenge for Europe is to reject
French hyperventilating about American hyperpower and keep its
perspective. The US has not lost its moorings, and the American
people, with an assist from Secretary of State Colin Powell and
other voices of reason, will not let the administration go too
far.
The challenge for the US, however, is to frame a choice for
Europe that most of Europe can embrace with dignity (if not always
with France). To help this mission along, NATO should be used in
Afghanistan (where it has finally gained a role, two years after
September 11) and in Iraq, where its umbrella might help relieve the
pressure on hard-pressed US troops. The Bush administration should
enthusiastically welcome European efforts to develop an independent
rapid reaction capability, especially to conduct peacekeeping
operations and respond to humanitarian emergencies. When Europeans
perform important jobs, as the Germans and the Turks have done over
the past year in Afghanistan, they deserve congratulations,
regardless of differences over less basic issues. Furthermore, the
Europeans should be invited, not directed, to work closely with
Washington on the toughest challenges, including that posed by
Iran's nuclear program. Perhaps above all, the Europeans should be
treated as adults. If they have differences with US policy, those
differences should be considered seriously, not dismissed as signs
of weakness (or age) or tantamount to treason. Washington needs to
recall that "allies" and "satellites" are distinctly different
things.
Judging success in Iraq
Perhaps one reason this administration does not feel the need to
consult much with others is its surety of vision. Bush proclaimed
last March that the war in Iraq would prove a decisive first step
towards the transformation of the entire Middle East. The
demonstration of US resolve, so his logic went, would cause
terrorists and those who shelter and sponsor them to tremble.
According to the president, "the terrorist threat to America and the
world will be diminished the moment that Saddam Hussein is
disarmed". The creation of a democratic Iraq, to be achieved with
the assistance of a modest number of US troops for a relatively
short period of time, would send an instructive message to
undemocratic Arab regimes and provide a helpful model for a
potential new Palestinian state. Deprived of Iraqi payments to the
families of suicide bombers, anti-Israeli terrorists would soon
close their bomb factories, and serious peace negotiations could
begin. Saddam's fall would also provide a useful lesson to would-be
WMD proliferators, both in faraway North Korea and nearby Iran.
Whatever one might think of the likelihood that this vision will
be realised, it certainly qualifies as sweeping and well
intentioned. Those who suspect the war in Iraq was a grab for oil
are mistaken; it was a grab for a place in history. It deserves time
now to play itself out. No-one expected every element to fall into
place smoothly. Critics such as myself may carp about bumps in the
road and setbacks, but the problems will matter little if momentum
does build towards a truly democratic and stable Iraq, the weakening
of al-Qaeda, an end to anti-Israeli terrorism, a halt to Iran's
nuclear ambitions and movement towards accountable government within
the Arab world. These are the standards for success the Bush
administration set for itself in going to war with Iraq at the
moment and under the circumstances it did. The administration merits
the courtesy of a reasonable period of time to achieve those goals.
Whether time will in fact bring such successes depends on a
series of choices the US can help frame. The most basic concerns the
legitimacy or illegitimacy of the use of terrorism as a means to
achieve political change.
To most Americans, the choice is simple. As the president has
said, the use of terrorism is something you are either for or
against, and if you are against it, certain actions must follow.
Americans may find it absurd that decent people could believe
differently. But history shows that most people, not exceptionally
villainous themselves, can nonetheless be persuaded that evil is not
evil but rather something else. Romans saw glory in the pillage of
the Parthians; pious Catholics saw purity of faith in the Spanish
Inquisition; America's founding fathers saw economic necessity in
slavery; Bosnian Serbs saw justice for past wrongs in ethnic
cleansing. Even many Nazi collaborators and appeasers were sure they
were doing the right thing; after all, what could be more moral than
"peace in our time"? In 1940, the poet Archibald MacLeish wrote,
"Murder is not absolved of immorality by committing murder. Murder
is absolved of immorality by bringing men to think that murder is
not evil. This only the perversion of the mind can bring about. And
the perversion of the mind is only possible when those who should be
heard in its defence are silent." The lesson for us now is that the
longer the illusion of evil as somehow justified lasts - whether
buttressed by propaganda, ignorance, convenience or fear - the
harder it is to dispel. That is why we must take nothing for
granted. We must be relentless in shaping a global consensus that
terrorism is fully, fundamentally and always wrong.
No exceptions, no excuses.
I made this argument to Arab leaders many times when I was
secretary of state. Their responses, however, were rarely
satisfactory. Most often, my interlocutors would condemn terrorism
unconditionally before commenting parenthetically on the legitimacy
of the struggle to free occupied Arab lands. In other words,
terrorism was despicable - except where it was most regularly
practised, namely in and against Israel. To this day, it remains the
majority Arab view that the militarily overmatched Palestinians are
justified in fighting Israelis with whatever means they have. On the
issue of terrorist financing, the answers I received were equally
inadequate. When I confronted one Saudi leader about payments to
Hamas, he said they were merited because Hamas, unlike Yasser Arafat
and his government, actually delivered social services to
Palestinians. As for payments to the families of suicide bombers,
those were justified not as an enticement or a reward but as a
humanitarian gesture.
The attitude of Arab conservatives towards the terrorism
practised by al-Qaeda is another matter. Bin Laden is the cobra that
turned on its master. The teaching of Wahhabi Islam in Saudi
Arabia's mosques, generously supported by the royal family, has
combined with a mix of other factors (globalisation, rising
unemployment and the US military presence) to create a global centre
for the dissemination of hatred. To the discomfort of Saudi leaders,
that hatred is now directed not only at the US and Israel, but also
at them. The three explosions set off in Riyadh in May killed 34
people, and hopefully destroyed the last set of lingering Saudi
illusions as well. The Saudis have since arrested more than a dozen
suspects, fired hundreds of radical clerics and suspended a thousand
more. They also claim to have implemented new regulations designed
to prevent the flow of charitable contributions from Saudis overseas
to terrorist groups. At the same time, however, the country's
leading liberal newspaper editor recently lost his job for seeming
to suggest there was a connection between terrorism and what is
being taught in radical mosques. As his firing suggests, the fight
for the collective heart and mind of Saudi Arabia has barely begun.
Crown Prince Abdullah and his successors must do more than simply
condemn extremism and terrorism; they must rip them out by the roots
that have become deeply implanted in the kingdom's sandy soil.
Even if the Saudis succeed in such efforts, the roots of
terrorism will continue to throw up shoots elsewhere. The Iraqi imam
quoted at the beginning of this article did not explicitly advocate
terrorism in his speech, but he did use the kind of
clash-of-civilisations terminology that tends to make Samuel
Huntington look retrospectively prescient. The "with us or against
us" choice put forward by Bush has been pulled apart and
reassembled, with Islam taking the high ground and with alleged
American evil substituted for the real evil: terrorism. This bit of
sophistry illustrates the immense difficulty the US will have trying
to categorise Iraqis on the basis of whether they are willing to
co-operate openly with the US. Iraqis, and Arabs more generally,
need the space to design their own choices free from the diktats of
authoritarian leaders and notwithstanding the preferences of the US
(provided those choices exclude violence, include tolerance, and are
fair to women). This will, I concede, be no simple matter to put
into practice.
There are, however, grounds for hope. It is true that the Pew
survey found widespread antipathy towards American policies,
especially in the Middle East. But it also found widespread
enthusiasm among Arab populations for values closely associated with
the US, such as freedom of expression, political pluralism and equal
treatment under the law. Solid majorities in places such as Jordan,
Kuwait and Morocco now believe that Western-style democracy would
work well in their countries. And since democracy is built from the
bottom up, one step at a time, US leaders have an opportunity (risky
as it is) to go around Arab governments to find values in common
with the much-vaunted "Arab street". Washington might, for example,
spend less time condemning what the independent al-Jazeera
television network chooses to broadcast and more time acknowledging
the importance of its right to choose and encouraging other media
outlets to start up.
Although I was proud of the Clinton administration's foreign
policy, and I understand that democracy cannot be imposed from the
outside, I regret not having done more to push for liberalisation
within the Arab world. We did nudge at times, supporting Kuwaiti
leaders in their initiative to give women the vote and encouraging
the creation of representative bodies in Bahrain and Jordan. But we
did not make it a priority. Arab public opinion, after all, can be
rather scary. The same Pew survey that detected Arab enthusiasm for
democracy also found that the "world leader" in whom Palestinians
have the most confidence is Osama bin Laden. Who wants to give
people with such opinions the right to choose their own leaders? The
answer is us: we should do everything possible to see that they are
given that right.
For years, Arab populations have received a distorted message
from Washington: that the US stands for democracy, freedom and human
rights everywhere except in the Middle East and for everyone except
the Arabs. The time has come to erase that perception and the
reality that too often lies behind it. Democracy will not end
terrorism in the Arab world, but neither will it nourish it, as
despotism does. Bin Laden's appeal is based on what he symbolises:
defiance. In fact, he offers nothing except death and destruction,
and Muslim majorities will reject this if they are offered real
alternatives.
Indeed, democratisation is the most intriguing part of the Bush
administration's gamble in Iraq. The creation of a stable and united
Iraqi democracy would be a tremendous accomplishment, with
beneficial repercussions in other Arab societies. But was invading
Iraq the right way to start building democratic momentum in the Arab
world? The answer will depend on how divided Iraq remains, and how
dicey the security situation becomes. US soldiers will have a hard
time democratising Iraq if they are forced to remain behind walls
and inside tanks. And US officials will lack credibility preaching
the virtues of freedom if they feel compelled to censor broadcasts,
search houses, ban political parties and repeatedly reject Iraqi
demands for more complete self-rule. The Bush administration was
determined to retain for itself the authority to supervise every
aspect of Iraq's postwar transition. History will judge whether that
was a wise decision, but I am reminded in this context of one of
"Rumsfeld's Rules", the Pentagon chief's guide for wise public
policy: "It is easier to get into something than to get out of
it."
New direction in the Middle East
A second, concurrent test of Arab democratisation is occurring
within the Palestinian Authority, where the Bush administration
deserves credit for pushing for reform of Palestinian institutions.
The selection of Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas and the appointment of
Finance Minister Salam Fayyad were necessary steps towards democracy
and sound governance. The creation of political freedom is essential
to allow the emergence of a new generation of Palestinian leaders,
comfortable with democratic ways. At the same time, democracy - if
it does come - is unlikely to produce a Palestinian government
willing to make peace on terms Israelis will accept, or at least not
for many years. The Pew survey found that 80 per cent of
Palestinians do not believe they can realise their rights while
co-existing with an Israeli state. That doubt is surely justified if
Palestinian rights are thought to include the recovery of all lands
taken during the 1967 war, full sovereignty over al-Haram al-Sharif
(the Temple Mount) and the right of Palestinian refugees to return
to their pre-1948 homes. Unless those demands are modified, or the
issues somehow sidestepped, the journey to a Middle East peace will
stretch far beyond the boundaries envisioned in the present road
map.
Making progress will therefore require new thinking on both
sides. The Israelis must help Abbas (or any successor) to succeed in
a way they never did with Arafat. This will mean recognising the
elementary fact that he is accountable to the Palestinians, not to
Ariel Sharon or Bush. Unless the new Palestinian regime is able to
show greater results than Arafat delivered, Abbas will soon find
himself a footnote to history.
The Palestinians, meanwhile, must reject terrorism - not because
the US or other outsiders want them to, but because terrorism, far
more than Israel, is the enemy of the Palestinian people. It is
destructive not only of the Palestinian economy and Palestinian
territorial hopes, but of the people's very soul. Terrorism is a
choice, and when people have the power to choose, they have the
power to change. The Bush administration, European governments, the
Arab world and Palestinian moderates must all work to create a
Palestinian consensus that excludes and excoriates terrorism. As
long as murderers are seen as martyrs, there can be no real peace,
nor any Palestinian state worthy of the name.
The Israelis, too, must be wary of the impact of their own
policies of aggressive self-defence. Former Israeli prime minister
Golda Meir once said that she blamed Arabs less for killing Israelis
than for making it necessary for Israelis to kill. Israel has a
right to protect itself against terrorism and, at times, to take
preemptive action. But it should never forget that it is destined to
live next door to the Palestinians forever, sharing the same land.
There is no military solution to that.
Reframing the choice
After September 11, 2001, Bush asked the world to stand with the
US against the terrorists who had attacked his country. In the years
since, however, he has broadened that request and altered its tone.
No longer is Bush asking the world to join a common struggle;
instead, he is demanding that it follow along as the US wages its
own battle against threats the president has defined. September 11
proved, Bush has said, that the institutions, alliances and rules of
the past are no longer adequate to protect the American people.
Terrorists who cannot be deterred are on the loose. If they gain
access to WMD, unspeakable horrors will ensue. And so the US, Bush
has warned, will act when and where it perceives an actual or
potential connection between terrorists and dangerous technology.
Those who join it will be rewarded. Those who do not will be
scorned, and worse.
I credit Bush for his ambition and for taking political risks he
did not have to take. I harbour no doubts about his sincerity. I
agree with him that the US cannot be complacent.
I share his assessment of the need not simply to oppose but also
to defeat America's declared enemies. For the good of the US, I hope
his policies succeed. But I am left with the feeling that he has
needlessly placed obstacles in his own path.
After all, the attacks of September 11 were dramatic and
shocking, but hardly the first time the US has realised the extreme
danger it will face if it allows WMD to fall into the wrong hands.
Clinton warned regularly of that very thing. One of his earliest
accomplishments was to persuade the Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus
to give up their nuclear weapons. He promoted the Nunn-Lugar
Co-operative Threat Reduction Program tirelessly, spending American
money to secure nuclear materials and expertise throughout the
former Soviet Union. Clinton made himself an expert on the threat of
a biological weapons attack on US soil. He reorganised the National
Security Council to broaden and intensify the fight against
terrorism months before the August 1998 bombings of the US embassies
in Kenya and Tanzania brought global notoriety to bin Laden. Year
after year, Clinton travelled to the UN in New York to emphasise two
themes: the importance of halting WMD proliferation and the need for
nations to unite in eliminating terrorist sanctuaries and funding.
But Clinton differed from his successor in that he believed
America's ability to beat the country's enemies would be
strengthened if NATO were strong and united, UN agencies such as the
International Atomic Energy Agency were enhanced, and America's
friends around the world were consulted and respected. Clinton saw
fighting terrorism as a team enterprise.
September 11 showed that what the US had been doing to identify
and defeat al-Qaeda was not enough.
It did not, however, discredit the premise that to defeat
al-Qaeda, Americans need the active help and co-operation of other
countries.
The Bush administration has chosen to take the problem of
al-Qaeda and meld it with the challenge of halting WMD proliferation
- two issues that overlap but are by no means identical in the
military, political and technical issues they raise. Defeating
al-Qaeda would not end the problem of proliferation; al-Qaeda is
deadly even without nuclear, chemical and biological arms.
Meanwhile, the nuclear programs of North Korea and Iran are driven
by nationalism, not terrorism, and must be dealt with primarily on
that basis. September 11, the administration's eureka moment, caused
it to lump together terrorists and rogue regimes and to come up with
a prescription for fighting them - namely, pre-emption - that
frightens and divides the world at precisely the moment US security
depends on bringing people together.
I believe a different approach, focused more sharply and
insistently on al-Qaeda, with the Middle East, Iraq, Iran and North
Korea treated vigorously but separately, might have yielded a better
result. Such an approach would, I believe, have enabled Bush to
formulate a much clearer choice on the core issue of terrorism for
allies in Europe and for the most critical audience of all: the
sometimes silent majority of Muslims in the Middle East and around
the world. The seriousness of that choice would have been backed
under this scenario by Washington's own seriousness in Afghanistan,
which would have remained the focus of US nation-building efforts.
Rather than flaunting American power, the US government would have
stressed the collective power of a world united in asserting that
terrorism is wrong, just as genocide, apartheid and slavery are
wrong. US efforts would have been directed not simply at the
apprehension of al-Qaeda suspects, but also at stopping the teaching
of hate, the glorification of murder and the endless manufacture of
lies about the West that continues to this day in much of the Middle
East and South Asia. Reinforced by a united Europe, American
officials would have pressed over time for the gradual opening of
Arab political and economic systems and for support of the
democratic changes that surveys suggest most Arabs want. Washington
would also have shown its respect for the value of every human life
by staying engaged on a daily basis in the uphill struggle to halt
killing on both sides in the strife-torn Middle East.
By complicating its own choice, the Bush administration has
instead complicated the choices faced by others, divided Europe and
played into the hands of extremists who would like nothing better
than to make the clash of civilisations the defining struggle of our
age.
It is late, but not too late, for Bush to adjust the course. The
administration has already shed some of its more optimistic
illusions about Iraq, pledged presidential involvement in the Middle
East, mended some fences with Europe and cut the level of
self-congratulation in its official pronouncements.
It would be helpful now if the doctrine of pre-emption were to
disappear quietly from the US national security lexicon and be
returned to reserve status. It is imperative, as well, that the
missions in Afghanistan and Iraq actually be completed before
victory is once again declared. To that end, perhaps administration
officials will recognise that although none of the existing
international institutions can do everything, each can do something.
Perhaps America's leaders will even put aside their reflexive
disdain for all things Clintonian and consider the model of Kosovo.
There, a NATO-led peacekeeping force, with Russian participation and
assisted by a new civilian police force, is providing security for
administrators from the UN, the European Union and the Organisation
for Security and Co-operation in Europe, who are working with local
parties to prepare a democratic transition. Not only is this set-up
operating fairly well, it has also given everyone involved a sense
of mission and a stake in success. It takes patience to work with
allies and to bring out the best in international organisations. But
doing so delivers great benefits: costs are shared, burdens are
distributed, legitimacy enhanced, diverse talents engaged. And
everyone joins in wanting success.
Finally, the administration should do more of what Bush did
during his recent, welcome trip to Africa - play to America's true
strengths. The idea that Americans - residents of the most powerful
land in history - are now truly living in fear of bin Laden has
failed to impress the majority of people around the globe, whose
concerns about terrorism are dwarfed by the challenge they face in
simply staying alive despite the ever-present perils of poverty,
hunger and disease. The American cause would therefore be heard more
clearly and listened to more closely if the administration
substituted bridges for bluster and spoke more often of choices
relevant to the day-to-day lives of more of the world's people. That
means spelling out consistently not only what Americans are against,
but also what they are for, and making clear that this includes
helping people everywhere live richer, freer and longer lives.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Madeleine K Albright was US secretary of state from 1997 until
2001 and is the author of the forthcoming Madam Secretary: A
Memoir.
Tomorrow in the Weekend AFR, Chester Crocker argues that
the enduring legacy of September 11 is the need to deal with failing
states.